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| Aspen, Colorado |
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Good afternoon, everyone. Jake, it’s great to see you. How does it feel to be out of Washington? Is it a refreshing change?
MR. SULLIVAN: It feels really good. (Laughs.)
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: If you don’t mind, I’d like to bring you back to Washington just for a moment. (Laughs.)
MR. SULLIVAN: That’s part of the job, I suppose.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: It’s widely known that President Biden is facing considerable pressure from Democrats and donors to step down from the race. While I understand you can’t comment on the campaign itself, I’m curious: Do you think this political turmoil is affecting how U.S. adversaries perceive us? Any indication they might take advantage of the distraction?
MR. SULLIVAN: First off, we just had the NATO Summit last week. As Anja mentioned, we focused on strengthening ties with our allies. The summit demonstrated remarkable unity and determination, something we haven’t seen in a long time. We stood united on issues like Ukraine, the threat from Russia, and the challenges posed by China. The communiqué made it clear that China represents a significant challenge to the transatlantic community.
Our adversaries saw that the United States, under President Biden’s leadership, is consolidating and energizing the most powerful alliance in history. We’re not just celebrating 75 years; we’re gearing up for the future in a meaningful way.
We’re committed to pursuing a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza, continuing our support for Ukraine, and addressing various ongoing initiatives. Our message to adversaries is clear: if they think they can challenge the U.S. and our allies, they’ll face a strong and coordinated response.
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: Just to clarify, U.S. intelligence hasn’t detected any specific threats from adversaries targeting the U.S. during this time?
MR. SULLIVAN: It’s an election year, and we know that adversaries often see this as an opportunity to influence or undermine our democracy. The Director of National Intelligence released a report last week noting that adversaries are indeed trying to interfere this year. We’re fully aware of this and are taking strong measures to protect the integrity of our elections and voting systems.
However, we haven’t identified any particular new threats from other countries at this moment. Nonetheless, adversaries are actively challenging American interests and undermining our allies. We have a range of coordinated activities with our allies to counter these threats.
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: Let’s shift to the Middle East and Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to visit Washington on Monday. Given the strained relationship between him and President Biden, what message will President Biden convey during their meeting?
MR. SULLIVAN: The primary focus of President Biden’s meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu will be on the ceasefire and the hostage situation. Several weeks ago, the President outlined a plan to secure the release of hostages, establish a ceasefire, provide humanitarian aid to Gaza, and create a framework for greater peace and stability in the Middle East. This was announced at the end of May.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Over June, President Biden worked to build global support for the ceasefire framework. This included gaining endorsement from the U.N. Security Council, the G7, regional countries, and securing Israel’s commitment. Hamas has also agreed to the broad framework. However, there are still many details to work out regarding Israel’s military presence, humanitarian aid, and the future of Gaza.
The President will discuss with Prime Minister Netanyahu how the U.S. and Israel, along with other mediators, can finalize this deal in the coming weeks. Secretary Blinken mentioned there’s a real opportunity to get this done, though challenges remain. The aim is to resolve these obstacles and achieve a deal.
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: Secretary Blinken mentioned being close to a resolution, but have you reached an agreement on transitioning from a temporary to a permanent ceasefire? Or is that something to be settled once the initial ceasefire is in place?
MR. SULLIVAN: President Biden outlined a clear three-phase plan for the ceasefire. Moving from phase one to phase two will involve indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas, addressing issues like a final hostage and prisoner exchange. The President acknowledged these talks will be challenging and will require significant negotiation. The first phase could be extended if progress is being made. Both Israel and Hamas understand this, though some technical details need to be ironed out. President Biden will discuss these with Prime Minister Netanyahu next week.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: How optimistic are you about achieving this?
MR. SULLIVAN: I’ve learned not to use the term “optimistic” when discussing the Middle East. However, I believe we have a significant opportunity now, more so than since the last brief hostage deal in November. The framework is broadly agreed upon. The key is working through the politics, psychology, and practicalities involved. We are determined to reach a resolution as soon as possible.
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: When President Biden meets with Netanyahu on Monday, will he see or get a preview of Netanyahu’s upcoming speech to Congress?
MR. SULLIVAN: Last week, we had two senior Israeli officials, Ron Dermer and Tzachi Hanegbi, in Washington. They provided a broad preview of Netanyahu’s speech, which is expected to align with U.S. policy. While the final speech may not be available immediately before it’s delivered, Netanyahu will likely brief the President on its contents. We expect the speech to focus on U.S.-Israel cooperation and regional challenges rather than diverging from our current policy approach.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Will you provide a detailed preview of the speech yourself?
MR. SULLIVAN: I’ll leave that to the Israelis.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Let’s discuss Evan Gershkovich. The President condemned his 16-year prison sentence for journalism. Does his sentencing make it easier to negotiate a prisoner swap?
MR. SULLIVAN: Securing the release of American citizens like Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan is a top priority for the President. We have a strong track record of bringing Americans home through hard diplomacy and relentless effort. Gershkovich’s conviction for journalism adds urgency to our efforts. While I can’t predict how this will affect negotiations with Russia, we are focused and determined to secure their release as soon as possible.
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: Turning to Ukraine, the administration worked hard to secure funding from Congress. If Donald Trump and J.D. Vance were elected, Ukraine might face a tougher stance from Washington. How will you reassure American allies and partners of the U.S. commitment to Ukraine, and do Europeans need to do more?
MR. SULLIVAN: Despite the successful NATO Summit, maintaining U.S. support for Ukraine is crucial. We need to show our allies and partners that the U.S. is committed to Ukraine’s defense. As for European contributions, there is always room for increased support, especially given the urgency of the situation. The goal is to ensure that both U.S. and European efforts are aligned and robust.
MR. SULLIVAN: First off, Europeans are doing a lot more for Ukraine than many Americans might realize. When you look at their combined efforts—military, economic, and humanitarian aid—they're contributing significantly more than the U.S. In contrast, the U.S. provides crucial support with our munitions and capabilities, but Europe's role has been substantial, especially since the Cold War. This is due to their recognition of how important Ukraine's success is for European security, as noted by my colleagues from Estonia, Germany, and others.
While I can't predict the future or speak for anyone outside of this administration, I can tell you there's strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress—both in the Senate and the House. This reflects the deep commitment of the American people, who continue to support funding and aid for Ukraine despite some predictions that interest might wane. This widespread support should endure, regardless of political changes.
Right now, our focus is on ensuring that the support structure for Ukraine remains effective. President Biden has shown strong backing by standing with President Zelenskyy in Italy and at the G7, signing a bilateral security agreement that commits the U.S. to help Ukraine both now and in the future. At the NATO Summit, he gathered leaders who also signed these agreements, underscoring our collective commitment to Ukraine. This framework should help sustain support over the long term.
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: But do European countries need some sort of insurance policy if U.S. leadership wanes? What should they do to prepare for such a scenario?
MR. SULLIVAN: Europeans are already preparing by building their own domestic capacities, which we're assisting with. Ukraine has a strong tradition of defense manufacturing, and its ability to enhance its own defense capabilities is growing steadily. Additionally, many European countries have signed long-term security agreements, and NATO's role, established at the recent summit, will provide ongoing support.
This combination of domestic growth, international agreements, and the motivation of a nation fighting for its sovereignty should contribute to Ukraine’s resilience. Europe’s proactive steps and investments in its own defense infrastructure, alongside continued Western support, are crucial.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Moving on to U.S. weapons, there are current restrictions on how Ukraine can use them against deeper parts of Russia. As U.S. support evolves, might there be changes in these restrictions, or is such escalation completely off the table?
MR. SULLIVAN: The President addressed this at the NATO Summit, stating that our support evolves based on Ukraine’s needs and the situation on the ground. As the war has developed, so has our assistance. While I can’t predict future policy changes, the President’s current stance is that long-range strikes into Russia have not been approved yet. Our decisions are based on a careful assessment of the situation and potential risks of escalation.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Switching to China, have you seen any reduction in their supply of dual-use items that could be used in Russia’s war effort? And if not, when will the U.S. escalate sanctions, possibly targeting Chinese financial institutions?
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MR. SULLIVAN: We’ve seen some response from China when we point out problematic transactions, but overall, China continues to supply dual-use items to Russia. These items, while not directly lethal, contribute to the weaponry used against Ukraine, and we believe China should stop this support. We’ve been transparent about this issue and have imposed targeted sanctions on specific entities.
We have the tools in place to escalate our response, including sanctions on Chinese banks if needed. While I can’t announce specific measures right now, we will continue to address this issue and implement further sanctions as necessary.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Over the past few years, there was concern about a potential conflict over Taiwan. How worried were you about this, and how do you assess the risk today?
MR. SULLIVAN: A conflict over Taiwan would be catastrophic on a global scale. Yes, I’ve been concerned about this risk. It’s a core part of U.S. policy to prevent such a conflict by deterring China from launching an aggressive war against Taiwan. We’ve worked diligently to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and have responded to any actions undermining this stability.
Maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is essential for global stability, and it remains a top priority in U.S. policy.
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: You've achieved a lot in strengthening alliances in the Indo-Pacific, connecting European allies with partners like the Philippines, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. However, when it comes to Chinese military capabilities in the western Pacific, particularly regarding Taiwan, China seems to far outstrip the U.S. in terms of assets. So, does the U.S. need to boost its military presence in the western Pacific and around the South China Sea to bolster deterrence and prevent potential conflicts?
MR. SULLIVAN: Our approach in the Indo-Pacific isn't about creating an "Asian NATO" but rather about enhancing the links among our existing allies. We're working to strengthen these bilateral alliances while also fostering collaboration between them—such as between the U.S., Japan, and Korea, or the U.S., Australia, and the UK. This includes diplomatic, technological, economic, and yes, military components.
Our efforts, like our Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the Philippines and our nuclear submarine deal with Australia through AUKUS, are meant to have a substantial impact on the region's balance of power. The goal is not to provoke conflict but to prevent it. You’re already seeing the results, and we expect to see even more progress in the future. I view this as a significant achievement of this administration and one that will continue to build strength in the years to come.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: In the Indo-Pacific, the Second Thomas Shoal stands out as a particularly volatile situation. With the Philippines' rusty World War II-era ship, the Sierra Madre, stationed there and Chinese efforts to block resupply missions, are there steps the U.S. can take, aside from invoking the mutual defense treaty, to support the Philippines? For example, could the U.S. consider providing naval escorts for Philippine supply ships?
MR. SULLIVAN: Regarding the mutual defense treaty, we've made it clear that it applies to public vessels in the South China Sea. China is well aware of our position on this. Our primary focus is on maintaining the status quo and supporting the Philippines in their efforts to resupply the Sierra Madre.
We're cautious about discussing hypothetical scenarios, but our aim is to see de-escalation and ensure that the Philippines can continue its operations. We’re committed to working closely with the Philippines to achieve this.
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MR. SEVASTOPULO: A while ago, a Chinese spy balloon crossed the U.S., and I was hoping for a detailed report on what was found after the balloon was recovered. Why hasn’t a report been released?
MR. SULLIVAN: The U.S. conducted a thorough examination of the balloon’s components after it was taken down over water. This allowed us to gather valuable information about China's capabilities and intentions. While the intelligence community decided not to publicly release detailed findings, the lessons learned are being applied and shared as needed.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Was the analysis of the balloon more sensitive or revealing than initially expected?
MR. SULLIVAN: It was quite enlightening. (Laughs)
MR. SEVASTOPULO: I’ll leave it there. Let's shift to India. You've invested heavily in strengthening ties with India, even though India maintains its relationship with Russia. How concerned were you when Prime Minister Modi met President Putin during President Biden's NATO summit in Washington?
MR. SULLIVAN: The key issue for me is whether India is deepening its military and technological ties with Russia. From that visit, I didn’t see evidence that India was significantly increasing its engagement with Russia in those areas. The optics of Modi's visit to Moscow are not ideal, but our focus remains on advancing our partnership with India in technology, economics, and regional geopolitics. India has a long-standing relationship with Russia, but we are committed to discussing how that relationship evolves, especially as Russia grows closer to China.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: A year ago, there were concerns about possible Indian involvement in the assassination of Sikh activists in Canada and the U.S. Have you received satisfactory explanations from India regarding these incidents?
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MR. SULLIVAN: We have been transparent about our concerns with Congress and others. The discussions with India have been constructive, and we are working through the issue respectfully and effectively. I won't delve into specifics publicly, but we are actively addressing the matter behind closed doors.
MR. SEVASTOPULO: We’re almost out of time. I'd love to ask about how you maintain your youthful appearance with such a demanding job, but I’ll refrain.
Instead, I’ll turn it over to one of the Rising Leaders for a final question.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, I’m Philip Davis from the State Department. I wanted to ask about increasing partnerships and alliances with Africa and South America. There’s been discussion about more government engagement in these regions. Can you share more about efforts to strengthen ties with these areas?
MR. SULLIVAN: Great question. Geopolitics today involves competing with great powers while addressing global challenges that require broad partnerships. Countries worldwide are asking what value we offer them and how we can work together.
The Biden administration aims to redefine our value proposition by focusing on what these regions prioritize, like infrastructure, health, and energy. We've launched initiatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure with the G7, which has mobilized substantial investments for Africa and the Americas.
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We’re also leveraging private capital to support economic growth and technology in these regions. Initiatives like the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity are already making a difference, such as creating a billion-dollar investment network for small entrepreneurs in the Americas.
These efforts are crucial not just for global stability but also for maintaining geopolitical competitiveness. I encourage finance professionals and policymakers to invest in these opportunities, as they benefit both our interests and those of our global partners.
Thank you for the chance to discuss this. (Applause)
MR. SEVASTOPULO: Thank you, Jake Sullivan, for joining us today. (Applause)
